Monday, September 29, 2008
Energía china


El carbón es el combustible más barato, más abundante y mejor repartido del planeta. China lo aprovecha, como los países occidentales se aprovecharon antes.

El 72 % de las emisiones industriales de CO2 en China provienen de la combustión de carbón, esencial en la producción de electricidad y de acero. Muy por detrás, el 17 % de las emisiones de CO2 proceden del petróleo, principalmente utilizado en el transporte. Tan sólo el 1 % procede del gas natural (datos de 2004). El 10 % restante procede de la fabricación de cemento, en cuyo proceso de elaboración se emite CO2.

Como se ve en la gráfica, en los años que llevamos del siglo XXI, las emisiones de CO2 de China no han dejado de aumentar y superan ya a las emisiones de EEUU, estancadas desde hace años. Sin embargo, la emisión per cápita china sigue siendo varias veces inferior a la americana, por lo que no hay razón moral para prohibir su incremento. China se encuentra entre los países firmantes del Protocolo de Kyoto a los que las emisiones de CO2 no les cuesta nada.

Ingleses y franceses les obligaron en el XIX a comprar opio y las pipas para fumarlo. Hoy, con la excusa del cambio climático, les gustaría obligarles a comprar uranio enriquecido y centrales.

ref.: Jay Gregg et al., China: emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production, Geophysical Research Letters, vol 35, L00806, 2008

cooling in the last year

Hadley Climate Center HadAT2 Data shows global cooling in the last year

15 08 2008

Overall long term trend remains positive in lower troposphere.

Most often on this forum we have looked at either surface temperature data from surface observations or lower tropospheric temperature data derived from satellite sounders. Today I’d like to point out a short scale trend in global radiosonde data showing cooling in the last year, as well as examine the record back to 1958.

The HadAT2 dataset from the Hadley Climate Center takes in balloon radiosonde measurements taken twice daily from hundreds of points around the globe and compiles it. Here is how they describe it:

HadAT consists of temperature anomaly timeseries on 9 standard reporting pressure levels (850hPa to 30hPa). The data is also available as equivalent measures to the broad MSU satellite weighting functions. The gridded product is derived from 676 individual radiosonde stations with long-term records. Because of the criteria of data longevity the resulting dataset is limited to land areas and primarily Northern Hemisphere locations. Radiosondes are single launch instruments and there have been many changes in instruments and observing practices with time. HadAT has used a neighbour-based approach to attempt to adjust for these effects and produce a homogeneous product suitable for climate applications.

They also go on to add a cautionary note about data uncertainty:

It is important to note that significant uncertainty exists in radiosonde datasets reflecting the large number of choices available to researchers in their construction and the many heterogeneities in the data.

And they go on to suggest alternate data sets for “robustness”. For now, we’ll just stick to HadAT2, but if readers want to do comparisons against the other datasets I’ll post results here. Just visit the HadAT2 page for links.

Here is the plot of all the pressure altitude levels of temperature data since 1958:

Click for a larger image

The source data set in ASCII text is available here

In the graph above, the warmer (redder) colors represent lower tropospheric data closer to the surface (850mb for example) while the cooler blues (cyans) are the high altitude data (100, 50, and 30mb). You can see in the 850mb data, the familiar signature of the 1998 Super El Nino that raised temperatures globally.

You can also see the slow upward trend in temperature in the lower troposphere data since 1958, about 0.6°C.

To give laymen readers an idea of the vertical scope of the plot above, here is a graphic showing pressure versus atmospheric altitude.

this year, there was an exceptional amount of ice -

“…this year, there was an exceptional amount of ice -”

8 08 2008

Click for larger image - Polarstern am Eisrand vor Nordost-Grönland

Photo: Martin Graeve, Alfred-Wegener-Institut

August 7-08 press release on work done from MV Polarstern in the northern Greenland Sea (between Svalbard and NE Greenland):

from Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI): http://idw-online.de/pages/de/news273425

a few excerpts, my abbreviated translation:

“this year, there was an exceptional amount of ice - according to expedition leader Prof. Gerhard Kattner. The extent reached from the high North southward to 74 degrees latitude. The main objective of the research cruise was to check 17 moorings with instruments that monitor temperature, salinity and currents of the water masses. AWI has been carrying out these unique high-latitude investigations since 1999. Observed 2008 temperatures are slightly lower than 2006 measurements, and there are preliminary indications of a return of the pacific water mass signature, which has been absent since 2004″

h/t to: Ulrich Lobsiger for the link and translation

A encouraging response on satellite CO2 measurement from the AIRS Team

A encouraging response on satellite CO2 measurement from the AIRS Team

31 07 2008

Recently we’ve been discussing products from the AIRS satellite instrument (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder) onboard the Aqua satellite. There has been quite a bit of interest in this because unlike the satellite temperature record that goes back to 1979, until now we have not had a complementary satellite derived CO2 record. We are about to have one, and much more.

Click image to see a slide show with this graphic in it (PDF)

I wrote to the AIRS team to inquire about when the satellite data on CO2, and other relevant products might be made public. All that has been released so far are occasional snippets of data and imagery, such as the short slide show above.

Here is the response I got from them:

Thank you for your interest in the AIRS CO2 data product.

We are still in the validation phase in developing this new product.
It will be part of the Version 6 data release, but for now those of us
working on it are intensively validating our results using in situ
measurements by aircraft and upward looking fourier transform IR
spectrometers (TCCON network and others).

The AIRS CO2 product is for the mid-troposphere. For quite some time
it was accepted theory that CO2 in the free troposphere is
“well-mixed”, i.e., the difference that might be seen at that altitude
would be a fraction of a part per million (ppmv). Models, which
ingest surface fluxes from known sources, have long predicted a smooth
(small)variation with latitude, with steadily diminishing CO2 as you
move farther South. We have a “two-planet” planet - land in the
Northern Hemisphere and ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. Synoptic
weather in the NH can be seen to control the distribution of CO2 in
the free troposphere. The SH large-scale action is mostly zonal.

Since our results are at variance with what is commonly accepted by he
scientific community, we must work especially hard to validate them.
We have just had a paper accepted by Geophysical Research Letters that
will be published in 6-8 weeks, and are preparing a validation paper.

We have global CO2 retrievals (day and night, over ocean and land, for
clear and cloudy scenes) spanning the time period from Sept 2002 to
the present. Those data will be released as we satisfactorily
validate them.

I suggest you Google “Carbon Tracker” for some interesting maps
generated using model atmospheres and data for CO2 sources. It shows
the CO2 weather in the lowest part of the atmosphere.

The big picture is that CO2 sources and sinks are in the planetary
boundary layer. Global circulation of CO2 occurs in the free
troposphere. Thus, PBL is local whereas free troposphere is
international.

———-
AIRS Team

With the suggestion of using the Google “Carbon tracker”, some readers might look at this response as a “dodge”. I don’t see it that way at all. Why? Because they are actively engaged in proving the instrument by doing a series of aircraft based measurements to validate the data the instrument on the spacecraft is seeing.

For example, read this paper from them:

First Satellite Remote Sounding of the Global Mid-Tropospheric CO2

These graphics show how hard they are working to validate the data from in situ measurements using airborne flask samples sent to a lab spectrometer: Read the rest of this entry »

Comments : 23 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

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Polar Ice Check - Still a lot of ice up there

30 07 2008

During our last check in, we had a look at northern Canada from the Arctic Circle to the North pole, and found we had quite a ways to go before we see an “ice free arctic” this year as some have speculated.

Today I did a check of the NASA rapidfire site for TERRA/MODIS satellite images and grabbed a view showing northern Greenland all the way to the North Pole.

There’s some bergy bits on the northeastern shore of Greenland, but in the cloud free area extending all the way to the pole, it appears to still be solid ice.

Click for a larger image - Note: image has been rotated 90° clockwise and sat view sector icon and time stamp added, along with “N” for north pole marker.

Link to original source image is here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T082121805

With more than half of the summer melt season gone, it looks like an uphill battle for an ice-free arctic this year.

Here is another view from today from the Aqua satellite:

Click for a larger image - Note: image has been rotated 90° counter- clockwise and sat view sector icon and time stamp added, along with “N” for north pole marker.

Source image is here:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A082121655

This dovetails with a press release and news story about more ice than normal in the Barents Sea

From the Barents Observer: Read the rest of this entry »

Comments : 101 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

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Putting on AIRS

29 07 2008

Recently we’ve been discussing products for the AIRS satellite instrument (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder) onboard the Aqua satellite. For example we’ve been looking at the only global image we can find of CO2 from its data made in 2003, wondering where the remainder of them are.

In my digging I discovered that the Apache webserver had open directory listings for folders, and this allowed me to explore a bit to see what I could find. in the \images folder I found a few images that I did not see published on the AIRS website. I’ve saved them to my server should they go offline, but have provided links to the original source URL.

One for Sea Surface Temperature at the tropics seems interesting, though the data period is too short to be meaningful. Note that to eliminate cloud issues, the soundings are done when the satellite has a lookdown to “clear sky”.

Original source image: http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/images/Aumann_SST_graph_543x409.jpg

I find it interesting that there is a slight global cooling of the oceans during this period of September 2002 to August 2004. The question is: where is the rest of the data and why has the AIRS group not been presenting it on their website? It is after all a publicly funded NASA program.

It is also interesting that this goes against one of the “signatures” of an AGW driven warming. Dr. David Evans writes in this essay: Read the rest of this entry »

Compo and Sardeshmukh: Oceans a main driver of climate variability - it’s the heat AND the humidity.

Compo and Sardeshmukh: Oceans a main driver of climate variability - it’s the heat AND the humidity.

23 07 2008

Illustration only: not part of the paper

This paper has been out for a few days, and several people have alerted me to it. This new paper by Compo,G.P., and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 2008: Oceanic influences on recent continental warming. in the journal Climate Dynamics, is now in press. See the PDF here

This paper makes some significant claims regarding what is driving the observed climate changes. The emphasis is on the ocean as the main driving component, and the authors recognize that “a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences” may be at work. While they point to the oceans as a significant driver, they don’t offer much to explain what is driving the oceanic change.

Even so, this is a significant work, and I urge my visitors to read it, because it shows that GHG forcing is not the only occupant of the drivers seat. It also clearly illustrates the need to examine such cyclic ocean influences as the PDO and AMO more closely, and to consider them in projections of temperature.

Abstract:

“Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land. Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences.”

Beck on CO2 and Temperature: Oceans are the “dominant CO2 store”

Beck on CO2 and Temperature: Oceans are the “dominant CO2 store”

25 07 2008

Evidence of variability of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 20th century
Geo-Ecological Seminar University of Bayreuth, 17th July 2008 (see here)
Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol

Click for larger image with interactive popup links

Summary of the presentation (printable PDF available here)

In 1958 the modern NDIR spectroscopic method was introduced to measure CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere [Beck 2007]. In the preceding period, these measurements were taken with the old wet chemical method. From this period, starting from 1857, more than 90,000 reliable CO2 measurements are available, with an accuracy within ± 3 %. They had been taken near ground level, sea surface and as high as the stratosphere, mostly in the northern hemisphere. Comparison of these measurements on the basis of old wet chemical methods with the new physical method (NDIR) on sea and land reveals a systematic analysis difference of about minus 10 ppm.

Wet chemical analyses indicate three atmospheric CO2 maxima in the northern hemisphere up to approx. 400 ppm over land and sea since about 1812. The measured atmospheric CO2 concentrations since 1920 –1950 prove to be strongly correlated (more than 80 %) with the arctic sea surface temperature (SST).

A detailed analysis of the Atlantic Ocean water during the arctic warming since 1918 – 1939 by Wattenberg (southern Atlantic ocean) and Buch (northern Atlantic ocean) indicates a very similar state of the Atlantic Ocean (pH, salinity, CO2 in water and air over sea etc.) These data show the characteristics of the warm ocean currents (part of global conveyor belt) at that time, indicating a strong CO2 degassing from the Atlantic Sea, especially in the area of Greenland/Iceland and Spitsbergen. More than 360 ppm had been measured over the sea surface.

In 2004 Polyakov published evidence for a multi-decadal oscillation of the ocean currents in the arctic circle, showing a warm phase (strong arctic warming during 1918 –1940 with high temperatures in the Iceland/Spitsbergen area) similar to the current situation, and a cold phase (around 1900 and 1960). Today the Iceland/Spitsbergen area is known for a strong absorption of CO2.

This multi-decadal heating of the oceanic CO2 absorption area and larger parts of the Northern Atlantic Ocean was followed by an increase of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to approx. 400 ppm during the 30s and approx. 390 ppm today. The abundance of plankton (13C) and other biota supports this view.

Who knew? Rachel Carson - climate change expert

Who knew? Rachel Carson - climate change expert

25 07 2008

NOTE: For those of you who don’t know, Rachel Carson has often been hailed as the “mother of the environmental movement” due to her book, Silent Spring, which is said to have resulted in the banning of the pesticide, DDT, worldwide. Before that book, she wrote another, The Sea Around Us, in which she proposes mechanisms for climate change.

What is most interesting is that, unlike with DDT, there is no placing blame on climate change to human influence. The mechanisms she proposes are all natural, all cyclic variation. No human created chemical influence (CO2) is mentioned. I wonder what she’d say today? Would she flip-flop and go with the flow of the current CO2 movement?

From Ed Sanders website, with some slight editing for readability and removal of the maddening glowing red background. (h/t to Steve McIntyre for the link) - Anthony

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From the book, The Sea Around Us.

Copyright 1950, 1951, by Rachel Carson.

Reprinted by permission of Oxford- University Press, Inc.

The old-timers are right–winters aren’t what they were. And the reason may be gigantic tides deep under the sea that apparently change the climate of the whole earth.

The ocean comes alive in one of this year’s most fascinating books. This article is condensed from The Sea Around Us by Rachel Carson. A lilelong student of nature, Miss Carson is editor-in-chief of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Day by day and season by season, the ocean dominates the world’s climate. Can it also be an agent in bringing about the long-period swings of climatic change that we know have occurred throughout the long history of the earth-the alternating periods of heat and cold, of drought and flood? There is a fascinating theory that it can.

This theory links events in the deep, hidden places of the ocean with the cyclic changes of eliminate and their effects on human history. It was developed by the distinguished Swedish oceanographer, Otto Pettersson, whose almost century-long life closed in 1941.