lunes, 5 de noviembre de 2007

RSS MSU: September 2007 was 7th coolest month in this century

According to the new RSS MSU satellite data, September 2007 was the 7th coldest month among 81 months since January 2001. It has made it to the 9% of the coolest months of the 21st century so far. Their gadgets measure temperature at latitudes between -70.0 (S) and +82.5 (N) - about 94.5% of the surface if I compute well.

In the last month, the global temperature was just 0.12 Celsius degrees above the long-term average which means that it was 0.78 Celsius degrees cooler than the temperature in April 1998 when the anomaly was +0.9 Celsius degrees. The main reason is La Nina that is getting stronger and might continue to do so for a few months.

The Southern hemisphere was 0.015 Celsius degrees cooler (!) than the long-term average, fifth coldest month since January 2001. Antarctica has cooled down by roughly 1 Fahrenheit degree in the last 50 years.












Figure 1: La Nina conditions on October 4th, 2007.
Click for other dates. The surface sea temperature
anomalies are divided to 0.5-Kelvin steps and colored.
White means sea ice, black means land.

La Nina, i.e. the female baby Jesus (Spanish speakers agree that this is the right translation unless they discriminate against girls by thinking that they can't become baby Jesus!), is famous for the blue (cool) strip in the equatorial Pacific ocean. Because this ocean is pretty big, La Nina typically lowers the global mean temperatures, too. More importantly, it brings distinct patterns of temperature and moisture to different parts of the world.

By the way, in an interview with Dennis Prager, Prof Robert Giegenback who is a geologist at UPenn describes some climate issues from a geological perspective. Among other things, he argues that only during 5% of the last one billion of years, the Earth could support permanent ice on both poles. We're living in one of the coolest periods of the geological history.

RSS MSU: October 2007 was 2nd coolest month in this century

According to the latest RSS MSU satellite data for the lower troposphere, October 2007 was globally the 2nd or 3rd coldest month among the 82 months since January 2001. July 2004 remains the coolest month because the anomaly was 0.053 Celsius degrees.

May 2007 and October 2007 share the silver and bronze medals with the anomaly of 0.091 Celsius degrees which is 0.81 Celsius degrees cooler than the warmest RSS month, April 1998. Using Al Gore's terminology, two of the three coldest months in this century have occurred in this year! ;-)

If we don't act and the temperature decreases by 0.81 Celsius degrees every decade, the moderate zone will be covered by a huge ice sheet by 2100. China, 1 billion people. India, 1 billion people. U.S., 0.3 billion people. Well, let me stop. Otherwise it would look like if I am working on my Nobel prize. :-)

The cool global temperature was primarily influenced by the equatorial zone that has experienced a strengthening La Nina. The interval between the latitudes -20 and +20 saw the coldest month since June 2000.

Unless the average temperature anomaly in November and December jumps well above 0.4 Celsius degrees which seems rather unlikely, 2007 will become the coldest recorded year in the 21st century according to the RSS MSU data.

Previous RSS MSU report: September 2007