The Ice in Greenland is Growing

Old Radar Sites In Greenland Show Icecap Growth Over the Years

(And let’s not forget what we’ve learned about the temperature reporting from the DEW line Radar Stations - Anthony)

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

Though the ice may be melting around the edges of the Greenland Icecap in recent years during the warm mode of the AMO much as it did during the last warm phase in the 1930s to 1950s, snow and ice levels continue to rise in most of the interior. Johannessen in 2005 estimated an annual net increase of ice by 2 inches a year.

(Above: Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland, Ola M. Johannessen, Kirill Khvorostovsky, Martin W. Miles, Leonid P. Bobylev, Science Express on 20 October 2005 Science 11 November 2005: Vol. 310. no. 5750, pp. 1013 � 1016, DOI: 10.1126/science.1115356)

A Canadian Icecap emailer noted during the cold war there were two massive radar sites built on the Greenland icecap now abandoned. They are called Dye-2 and Dye-3. When built they sat high above the snow, recent pictures show how the snow is building up around them, proving the snow build-up in recent times. This demonstrates this snow accumulation over time.

Dye-2 and 3 were among 58 Distance Early Warning Line radar stations built by America between 1955-1960 across Alaska, Canada, Greenland and Iceland at a cost of billions of dollars. Their powerful radars monitored the skies constantly in case Russia decided to send bombers towards America. After extensive studies in late 1957, the USAF selected sites for two radar stations on the ice cap in southern Greenland. Dye-2 was to be built approximately 100 miles east of Sondrestrom AB and 90 miles south of the Arctic Circle at an altitude of 7, 600 feet, and Dye-3 was to be located approximately 100 miles east of DYE II and slightly south at an elevation of 8,600 feet.

The selected locations for the new radar sites were found to receive from three to four feet of snow fall each year. Since the winds were constantly blowing with speeds as much as 100 mph, this snow accumulation constantly formed large drifts. To overcome this potential problem, it was decided that the Dye sites should be elevated approximately twenty feet above the surface of the ice cap.

Dye 3 was built in 1960. From a distance the structure, with its onion-shaped dome, looks like a Russian orthodox church. Dye 3 was an ice core site and previously part of the DEW line in Greenland. (The Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line: A Bibliography and Documentary Resource List Arctic Institute of North America, Page 23). As a Distant Early Warning line base, it was disbanded in years 1990/1991. The Dye 3 cores were part of the GISP (Greenland Ice Sheet Project initiated in 1971) and, at 2037 meters, was the deepest of the 20 ice cores recovered from the Greenland ice sheet as part of GISP. Samples from the base of the 2km deep Dye 3 and the 3km deep GRIP cores revealed that high-altitude southern Greenland has been inhabited by a diverse array of conifer trees and insects within the past million years. (Eske Willerslev, et al. (2007) Ancient Biomolecules from Deep Ice Cores Reveal a Forested Southern Greenland Science 317 111-114)

The first image below is from 1972.

See larger image here.

Here it is in 2006.

See larger image here.

In looking back at the time the sites were abandoned, one console operator lamented “We were very busy during this time and I was sad to see it end. I remember thinking of all the waste,” he said. The site is slowly disappearing into the snow. Its outbuildings are no longer visible and drifting snow will consume it completely one day, but that day appears to be decades away.” Read more here.

album picasa

nieve panti

Don Easterbrook’s AGU paper on potential global cooling

Don sent me his AGU paper for publication and discussion here on WUWT, and I’m happy to oblige - Anthony

Abstracts of American Geophysical Union annual meeting, San Francisco Dec., 2008

Solar Influence on Recurring Global, Decadal, Climate Cycles Recorded by Glacial Fluctuations, Ice Cores, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Historic Measurements Over the Past Millennium

Easterbrook, Don J., Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225,

Global, cyclic, decadal, climate patterns can be traced over the past millennium in glacier fluctuations, oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, sea surface temperatures, and historic observations. The recurring climate cycles clearly show that natural climatic warming and cooling have occurred many times, long before increases in anthropogenic atmospheric CO₂ levels. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are well known examples of such climate changes, but in addition, at least 23 periods of climatic warming and cooling have occurred in the past 500 years. Each period of warming or cooling lasted about 25-30 years (average 27 years). Two cycles of global warming and two of global cooling have occurred during the past century, and the global cooling that has occurred since 1998 is exactly in phase with the long term pattern. Global cooling occurred from 1880 to ~1915; global warming occurred from ~1915 to ~1945; global cooling occurred from ~1945-1977;, global warming occurred from 1977 to 1998; and global cooling has occurred since 1998. All of these global climate changes show exceptionally good correlation with solar variation since the Little Ice Age 400 years ago.

The IPCC predicted global warming of 0.6° C (1° F) by 2011 and 1.2° C (2° F) by 2038, whereas Easterbrook (2001) predicted the beginning of global cooling by 2007 (± 3-5 yrs) and cooling of about 0.3-0.5° C until ~2035. The predicted cooling seems to have already begun. Recent measurements of global temperatures suggest a gradual cooling trend since 1998 and 2007-2008 was a year of sharp global cooling. The cooling trend will likely continue as the sun enters a cycle of lower irradiance and the Pacific Ocean changed from its warm mode to its cool mode.

Comparisons of historic global climate warming and cooling, glacial fluctuations, changes in warm/cool mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and sun spot activity over the past century show strong correlations and provide a solid data base for future climate change projections. The announcement by NASA that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had shifted to its cool phase is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007) and coincides with recent solar variations. The PDO typically lasts 25-30 years, virtually assuring several decades of global cooling. The IPCC predictions of global temperatures 1° F warmer by 2011, 2° F warmer by 2038, and 10° F by 2100 stand little chance of being correct. “Global warming” (i.e., the warming since 1977) is over!

Figure 1. Solar irradiance, global climate change, and glacial advances. Click to enlarge

The real question now is not trying to reduce atmospheric CO₂ as a means of stopping global warming, but rather (1) how can we best prepare to cope with the 30 years of global cooling that is coming, (2) how cold will it get, and (3) how can we cope with the cooling during a time of exponential population increase? In 1998 when I first predicted a 30-year cooling trend during the first part of this century, I used a very conservative estimate for the depth of cooling, i.e., the 30-years of global cooling that we experienced from ~1945 to 1977. However, also likely are several other possibilities (1) the much deeper cooling that occurred during the 1880 to ~1915 cool period, (2) the still deeper cooling that took place from about 1790 to 1820 during the Dalton sunspot minimum, and (3) the drastic cooling that occurred from 1650 to 1700 during the Maunder sunspot minimum. Figure 2 shows an estimate of what each of these might look like on a projected global climate curve. The top curve is based on the 1945-1977 cool period and the 1977-1998 warm period. The curve beneath is based on the 1890-1915 cool period and 1915-1945 warm period. The bottom curve is what we might expect from a Dalton or Maunder cool period. Only time will tell where we’re headed, but any of the curves are plausible. The sun’s recent behavior suggests we are likely heading for a deeper global cooling than the 1945-1977 cool period and ought to be looking ahead to cope with it.

Figure 2. Global temperature variation 1900 to 2008 with projections to 2100. Click to enlarge.

The good news is that global warming (i.e., the 1977-1998 warming) is over and atmospheric CO₂ is not a vital issue. The bad news is that cold conditions kill more people than warm conditions, so we are in for bigger problems than we might have experienced if global warming had continued. Mortality data from 1979-2002 death certificate records show twice as many deaths directly from extreme cold than for deaths from extreme heat, 8 times as many deaths as those from floods, and 30 times as many as from hurricanes. The number of deaths indirectly related to cold is many times worse.

Depending on how cold the present 30-year cooling period gets, in addition to the higher death rates, we will have to contend with diminished growing seasons and increasing crop failures with food shortages in third world countries, increasing energy demands, changing environments, increasing medical costs from diseases (especially flu), increasing transportation costs and interruptions, and many other ramifications associated with colder climate. The degree to which we may be prepared to cope with these problems may be significantly affected by how much money we waste chasing the CO₂ fantasy.

All of these problems will be exacerbated by the soaring human population. The current world population of about 6 ½ billion people is projected to increase by almost 50% during the next 30 years of global cooling (Figure 2). The problems associated with the global cooling would be bad enough at current population levels. Think what they will be with the added demands from an additional three billion people, especially if we have uselessly spent trillions of dollars needlessly trying to reduce atmospheric CO₂, leaving insufficient funds to cope with the real problems.

Figure 3. Global population.

box net

flickr

aniHPIM1890

aqui os pongo unas fotos que
saque en la plaza de america
en la noche de fin de año

Half of the USA is covered in snow

25 12 2008

This is something you don’t see every day. We recently heard that Canada had a white Christmas EVERYWHERE, the first time in four decades. Here we see that the USA has an increased albedo (surface reflectivity) for about 1/2 of it’s land area. The increased albedo combined with low sun angle this time of year conspires to keep ice and snow unmelted.

Look for a long and extended winter weather pattern as we head towards the spring equinox, which can’t get here fast enough.

Here is a more colorful view of snow depth on Dec 25th from the National Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center:

El carbono en Africa

Deberían ser los biólogos o los químicos los que dijeran basta! a la estúpida proliferación de la idea, que se fomenta en escuelas y colegios, de que el CO2 es un elemento sucio, artificial y dañino para la vida de la humanidad y del planeta.

El carbono, que en el aire adopta esencialmente la forma oxigenada de CO2, y también de metano, CH4, es el elemento esencial de la vida terrestre. Para comprender la vida de este planeta cualquier estudiante debería empezar reflexionando sobre los intercambios de carbono entre el aire, los océanos, las plantas y los suelos. En vez de eso, lo que predomina es la ideología histérica que predica la descarbonización del mundo, que empieza por pedir que se cierren las centrales térmicas, que sigue por la prohibición de comer chuletas, y que acaba por volver anoréxica a la humanidad y a su economía.

Por eso esta mañana, cuando buscaba otra cosa en mi ordenador y he encontrado el dibujo de arriba, me han entrado ganas de ponerlo aquí y de explicarlo de forma sencilla. Sin más.

Trata de los intercambios de carbono en el continente africano. Los números indican las cantidades de carbono intercambiadas entre el aire, el suelo y las plantas, calculadas en gigatoneladas de carbono al año (una gigatonelada equivale a un petagramo o, lo que es lo mismo, a "10 elevado a la quince" gramos) y referidas a los años 90. Los dos números entre paréntesis indican las cantidades de carbono, más o menos inmutables, que en cualquier momento se encuentran en las plantas de Africa (80 gigatoneladas) y en los suelos de Africa (200 gigatoneladas).

Las plantas en Africa absorben cada año 10 gigatoneladas de carbono (NPP, producción primaria neta: lo absorbido por fotosíntesis menos lo perdido en la respiración de las propias plantas). Por su parte los suelos emiten 11 gigatonelas de carbono por la respiración (Rh, respiración heterótrofa) de los microorganismos que en él habitan y que se alimentan del carbono de las plantas muertas.

La intervención humana en el ciclo se manifiesta en la emisión de carbono al aire por tres procesos diferentes. a) La quema de combustibles fósiles y la fabricación de cemento (0,2 gigatoneladas/año). b) La deforestación (0,4 gigatonelas/año) y c) por las quemas agrícolas de las sabanas (1,1 gigatonelas/año) que se efectúan anualmente antes de la época de siembra. Estas emisiones de carbono en la sabana no son sólo en forma de CO2 sino también de metano, CH4. ¿Es malo eso?. No lo sé, habría que preguntárselo a los elefantes. Pero, en fin, no es como para desesperarse.

Temperatura global 2001-2008

El mapamundi de arriba representa el cambio de temperatura a lo ancho y largo del planeta en el siglo actual, durante el período 2001-2008 (para ser exactos, entre Diciembre 2000 y Noviembre 2008). La media global del cambio (diferencia entre los extremos de la tendencia lineal) es casi nula: 0,01 ºC.

A diferencia de lo que suele ser más frecuente, utilizo un tipo de mapa, o proyección cartográfica, que conserva la proporción de las áreas. Por ejemplo, Africa aparece con relación al resto del globo tan grande como realmente es y no se exageran, como se suele hacer, las áreas de las latitudes altas. Por eso, el calentamiento registrado en el Artico Oriental aparece restringido a una estrecha zona de color rojo oscuro. No se puede extrapolar el calentamiento del Artico a todo el globo. Incluso en su extremo occidental, en Alaska, lo que ha habido estos años es un enfriamiento. Y en el polo sur tampoco se ha notado el efecto invernadero del CO2 que, gracias al viento, ha aumentado por igual en todas partes.

El mapa lo tomo de los datos del Instituto Goddard de la NASA, GISS, cuyo director, James Hansen, es uno de los gurús del calentamiento climático, tipo Madoff, el que fue director del Nasdaq y a quien ahora obligan a hablar menos y dormir en casa.

album con flickr

ALBUM CREADO CON FLICKR

Eólicas: menos lobos.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Eólicas: menos lobos.

Lo que ha chutado este año en la producción eléctrica española es el gas, no la energía éolica.

A falta de poco más de un mes para que acabe 2008, la producción eléctrica proveniente de las centrales de ciclo combinado que utilizan gas natural como combustible ha aumentado en términos absolutos diez veces más que la producción eólica, con respecto al mismo período del año pasado.

Es más, incluso la producción nuclear ha aumentado más que la eólica.

El gran avance del gas se ha debido al gran retroceso del carbón, que este año se ha visto gravado con una enorme tasa debida al sistema establecido por el protocolo de Kioto. El carbón emite el doble de CO2 que el gas por unidad de energía producida y por lo tanto Kioto le perjudica el doble.

En los próximos meses, lo mismo que baja la gasolina porque baja el petróleo, debería bajar la electricidad si bajan los precios del gas y del carbón. Y vaya que sí lo hacen.

Pero como saben ustedes, gracias a la santa unión de ecologistas, sindicalistas y capitalistas, lo que ocurrirá es lo contrario: pagaremos más. Y con gusto, ya que es el día del club y todos somos "seguidores del planeta", como dice la publicidad de Iberdrola.

ref.: www.ree.es - Red Eléctrica de España
gráfico de elaboración propia a partir de datos del Boletín Diario 25 Nov. 2008

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Cuando Obama estuvo en Ponferrada

No, no estuvo nunca, me he equivocado. Donde sí estuvo Obama fue en Kentucky hace unos meses, en la campaña electoral, y allí repartió el pasquín de propaganda que ilustra este post. Barack Obama cree en el limpio carbón de Kentucky. Cuando va a California, tierra de ecologistas y de vigilantes de la playa, el futuro presidente echa pestes contra las centrales térmicas de carbón, pero cuando va a Kentucky ya es otra cosa. Menos mal.

He confundido Kentucky con El Bierzo, en donde el gobierno español promociona también lo que se llama el "carbón limpio" (clean coal). Parece que el ministro Sebastián ha optado definitivamente por que se desarrolle el tema en Ponferrada (La Nueva España). Como ya lo expliqué hace un par de años (co2: Carbón limpio) , se entiende por carbón limpio un procedimiento por el cual tras la combustión del carbón en las centrales térmicas se recoge el CO2 emitido y se guarda bajo tierra, para cuando haya ocasión de usarlo.

De esto del "carbón limpio" no se habla mucho porque no gusta nada ni a los de las renovables, ni a los de las nucleares. Los primeros dicen que es muy peligroso guardar el CO2 (ya saben, para ellos el CO2 es tóxico) y los segundos dicen que eso de capturarlo y almacenarlo va a ser muy caro e inviable. Lo que ocurre es que si el procedimiento sale bien, ya no habrá excusa para que sigan urbanizando el monte plantándonos aerogeneradores por todas partes, ni tampoco para que nos embarquen en la complicación y el centralismo vigilado de las nucleares.

Ormai è storia! Il sole, mai così minimo da un secolo

L'attuale minimo solare è prossimo ai tre anni di durata, in cui vi sono stati quasi 500 giorni senza macchie. Ma la cosa più importante è che è stato battuto il record di giorni senza macchie del 1933 e sta per esserlo anche quello del 1954.

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Aldo Meschiari: 29-11-2008 ore 08:18

Stiamo per giungere al traguardo dei tre anni di durata di questo minino solare, collocato tra il ciclo 23 ed il ciclo 24. E per ora davvero si fa fatica a vedere segnali espliciti di una vera partenza del nuovo ciclo. A dir la verità, invece, ogni tanto qualcuno prova ad annunciare la ripresa dell'attività solare, ma sempre senza successo. Tanto che questo "gridare al lupo" sta producendo il classico effetto controproducente di una forte diffidenza ad ogni nuovo strillo mediatico. Appare con chiarezza che a tutt'oggi le informazioni che abbiamo sulla nostra stella sono troppo esigue per poter effettuare previsioni sicure sulla sua attività.

I dati invece ci mostrano una durata del minimo davvero eccezionale.
Sono circa 500 i giorni spotless, cioè senza macchie solari: per la precisione mentre scrivo sono 483. Ricordo che le macchie che si formano sulla superficie della nostra stella sono parti più fredde rispetto alle circostanti, ed indicano una forte attività geo-magnetica. Quando il sole è più attivo magneticamente, il numero di macchie aumenta e per molti studiosi questo comporta conseguenze anche per il clima terrestre, che va incontro ad una fase più calda. Se invece l'attività geomagnetica solare è bassa, e quindi il numero di macchie è pari a zero o molto esiguo, allora il clima del nostro pianeta subisce un raffreddamento.

Ma il dato più importante è che il 2008 ha superato il 1933 riguardo al numero di giorni spotless, e sta per superare anche il 1954. Infatti con 238 giorni privi di macchie, il 2008 risulta vicino al 1954 che di giorni spotless ne aveva contati circa 240, mentre ha già sopravanzato il 1933, coi suoi 237 spotless days. Ciò significa che quando fra pochi giorni supereremo anche il 1954, il 2008 si posizionerà come terzo anno per maggiore numero di spotless days dal 1912. Inoltre appare evidente che anche il 1912 è alla portata di un possibile sorpasso: con circa 255 spotless days non è poi così lontano.
Insomma, era un secolo che il sole non tirava così fortemente il freno!

Anche il flusso solare appare davvero molto basso in questi mesi, spesso sotto il valore di 70.
Per capire l'importanza di tale dato bisogna capire cosa indica il flusso solare.
In parole semplici la nostra stella produce un campo magnetico davvero immenso, che arriva ad investire nelle sue varie forme tutto il sistema solare e che coincide con la cosiddetta eliosfera. Tale energia elettromagnetica è rappresentata dal vento solare, dai flares, dalle famose macchie solari, dall'energia radiativa. La misurazione di tale forza energetica è appunto il flusso solare, che rappresenterebbe il tasso di scorrimento di energia solare che passa ogni secondo in un cm quadrato della superficie di un oggetto.

A questo punto viene sempre più da chiedersi quali saranno gli effetti di tale minimo.
Sicuramente vengono in mente altre epoche caratterizzate da lunghi periodi senza macchie solari o con numeri esigui di macchie: il ciclo di Dalton o addirittura quello di Maunder.
Tali cicli che coincisero con l'inizio del 1800 e del 1700 sono diventati famosi come momenti topici della PEG, la Piccola Era Glaciale. Ma per fugare subito ogni possibile conclusione affrettata, diciamo che in tali periodi non era solo la lunghezza dei minimi ad essere stata eccezionale, ma la bassa intensità dei massimi. Ciò è possibile notarlo osservando il secondo grafico: una serie di cicli undecennali con numero di macchie complessivo davvero esiguo, nel caso di Maunder praticamente assente. Una tale bassissima attività solare, che avrebbe di certo forti ripercussioni climatiche, è impossibile da prevedere con certezza scientifica per il prossimo futuro.

Per ora le ipotesi scientifiche sono tantissime: dopo che l'attività della nostra stella è stata per troppo tempo considerata una semplice costante, ora la scienza si sbizzarrisce per cercare di prevedere i possibili effetti che tale bassissima attività del sole potrebbero avere sul clima terrestre.
Molte di queste ipotesi sono già state esaminate sul nostro giornale.
Di certo questa situazione si presenta come un'ottima opportunità per studiare direttamente quali saranno le conseguenze climatiche di un sole così debole.

l satellite sentenzia: temperature mondiali stabili nel mese di Ottobre

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Marco Rossi: 14-11-2008 ore 09:02

Temperature satellitari piuttosto stabili, in questo ultimo mese di Ottobre, almeno a confronto con il precedente Settembre.

Le rilevazioni della bassa Troposfera, che esaminano i dati soprattutto dello strato d'aria compreso tra gli 0 ed i 3000 metri di quota, hanno registrato una temperatura superiore alla norma di +0,16°C, valore identico a quello del passato mese di Settembre.

In complesso, l'anno 2008 avrebbe avuto finora uno scarto dalla norma di +0,01°C, cioè praticamente siamo nella piena normalità del trentennio 1979-2008.

Lo scorso anno invece i primi dieci mesi si erano conclusi con uno scarto dalla norma di +0,3°C, l'abbassamento della temperatura globale di 3 decimi in un anno è piuttosto significativo.

Al secondo sensore di rilevazioni satellitari, quello che presenta la massima densità di dati rilevati a circa 5000 metri di altezza, la temperatura terrestre presenta uno scarto negativo, pari a -0,02°, e l'anno 2008 presenta, al momento, uno scarto dalla norma 1979-2008 di -0,13°C, un anno dunque lievemente freddo.

Lo scorso anno aveva registrato uno scarto positivo di +0,16°, e dunque, anche a questa quota, la diminuzione è stata pari a -0,29°C.

Esaminando i dati nei dettagli, notiamo che, quasi come valore costante, i Continenti si sono riscaldati più degli Oceani, +0,40°C contro +0,03°C.

Inoltre, l'Emisfero Nord, è stato più caldo di quello Sud: +0,25° contro +0,08°C.

Il Polo Nord è stato piuttosto caldo, con uno scarto termico di +0,67°C, mentre quello Sud è stato più freddo della norma di -0,53°C.

Indubbiamente, gli Oceani funzionano da "volano termico" molto più della Terraferma, presentando quindi anomalie termiche molto contenute.

El trópico no se calienta

Si a escala global las mediciones indican que no ha habido subida térmica en los últimos diez años, la no-subida en la zona tropical se puede aplicar a los 30 últimos años, desde 1980. Se mida como se mida: con globos, con satélites o con garitas en el suelo.

Pongo arriba una gráfica de la evolución de la temperatura en la zona tropical (20ºN-20ºS) que extraigo de la página web del Met Office. Confío que el copyright real no se enfade porque haya utilizado el metodo CPyT (corta, pega y traduce) para presentarla aquí.

Las mediciones de satélite se refieren a la baja troposfera, que es la capa de aire entre el suelo y unos 3.000 o 4.000 metros de altura. Miden la temperatura del aire por la captación que hacen de las microondas que emite el oxígeno. Comenzaron en 1979. Dos organismos, más o menos liados a la NASA, publican todos los meses sus resultados. Son UAH (Universidad de Alabama en Huntsville) y RSS (Remote Sensing Systems). Pueden leerse en la web y cada vez somos más los que los consultamos (aquí y aquí)

Aparece también en la gráfica la evolución térmica indicada por los radiosondeos con globo en la baja troposfera que se realizan de forma periódica en diversas estaciones, no muchas, de aquella zona.

Y finalmente, en verde, aparece la evolución de la temperatura media a partir de los datos de los termómetros de las garitas instaladas en tierra.

Ciclones, tifones, huracanes, inundaciones y sequías, Niños y Niñas, emigraciones y hambrunas, pérdida de biodiversidad, tsunamis ... todo el trópico afectado por el CO2 y el cambio climático. Sin embargo, lo esencial del calentamiento global, el calentamiento, resulta en estas tres últimas décadas inapreciable.

ref. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadat/images.html

posted by Antón Uriarte @ 12:42 AM

This year’s Antarctic ozone hole is 5th biggest

This year’s Antarctic ozone hole is 5th biggest

9 11 2008

September 12th, 2008 Ozone hole over the Antarctic

From NASA News

This is considered a “moderately large” ozone hole, according to NASA atmospheric scientist, Paul Newman. And while this year’s ozone hole is the fifth largest on record, the amount of ozone depleting substances have decreased about 3.8% from peak levels in 2000. The largest ozone hole ever recorded occurred in 2006, at a size of 10.6 million square miles.

The Antarctic ozone hole reached its annual maximum on Sept. 12, 2008, stretching over 27 million square kilometers, or 10.5 million square miles. The area of the ozone hole is calculated as an average of the daily areas for Sept. 21-30 from observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite.

More here and here from NASA

What I find most interesting is this press release from last year from NASA:

Read the rest of this entry »

Sunlight has more powerful influence on ocean circulation

Sunlight has more powerful influence on ocean circulation and climate than North American ice sheets

9 11 2008

From Physorg.com: A study reported in today’s issue of Nature disputes a longstanding picture of how ice sheets influence ocean circulation during glacial periods.

The distribution of sunlight, rather than the size of North American ice sheets, is the key variable in changes in the North Atlantic deep-water formation during the last four glacial cycles, according to the article. The new study goes back 425,000 years, according to Lorraine Lisiecki, first author and assistant professor in the Department of Earth Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Lisiecki and her co-authors studied 24 separate locations in the Atlantic by analyzing information from ocean sediment cores. By observing the properties of the shells of tiny marine organisms, called foraminifera, found in these cores, they were able to deduce information about the North Atlantic deep water formation. Scientists can discern historical ocean temperature and circulation patterns through the analysis of the chemical composition of these marine animals.

Previously, scientists relied on a study called “Specmap,” performed in 1992, to find out how different parts of the climate system interacted with one another during glacial cycles. Specmap analyzed ocean circulation at only one place in the Atlantic. Read the rest of this entry »

Carbón americano

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Carbón americano

Hace poco más de un mes, en Gijón, a la una y media de la noche de un lunes, catorce socios de Greenpeace se montaron en tres zodiacs y abordaron un barco que traía carbón colombiano. Hicieron una gran pintada en el casco, "Abandonemos el carbón", y tras unas triunfantes declaraciones a la prensa pasaron por el cuartelillo de la Guardia Civil, de donde salieron libres y sin cargos, no faltaría más. De allí volvieron, ya de mañana, a su barco base, el "Arctic Sunrise", en donde les esperaba un rico desayuno de chocolate con churros (esto me lo supongo yo).

A mí me caen mejor los piratas de Somalia, !qué le voy a hacer !

Si el carbón americano, en vez de ser de Colombia, hubiese sido de Estados Unidos, no creo que se hubiesen ido de rositas. España importa al año más de un millón de toneladas de carbón de Estados Unidos.

Las exportaciones de carbón han crecido espectacularmente en aquel país y aún más durante los últimos meses. Veremos qué pasa con el nuevo presidente. Si el carbón es un producto tan nefasto y Obama tan ético y global, el gobierno federal tendría derecho a impedir su exportación, como ya lo ha hecho con otros productos.

Obama ha cambiado mucho desde que sólo era senador de un estado (Illinois), en donde el carbón aporta el 50 % de la electricidad y la energía nuclear el otro 50 %, a cuando ha sido candidato a la presidencia y se ha vuelto ecologista. Cuando asuma la presidencia, no sé qué postura real adoptará, aunque supongo que la inercia le llevará a seguir sosteniendo un discurso ecologista, de descarbonización, de "planeta en peligro" y blablabla. Uno más.

ref.:
Quarterly Coal Report - U.S. Coal Exports
La Nueva España

Sunday, November 09, 2008

A paladas

Más y más paladas. El crecimiento de la producción global de carbón, según la Agencia Internacional de la Energía, seguirá aumentando su participación en la producción eléctrica, que pasará de ser el 40% en 2005 al 45% en 2030.

Oh, oh, oh ... el CO2 sube, peligra el planeta...

Al planeta, Sr. Presidente, le importa un comino que el CO2 suba. La historia geológica de los últimos 500 millones de años indica que la concentración de CO2 casi siempre estuvo muy por encima de la actual. El carbono fósil que devolvemos a la atmósfera estuvo ya en el aire algún día y las plantas crecieron (y crecen hoy en los invernaderos) gracias a él y con concentraciones bastante superiores a esas 450 o 500 ppm (partes por millón) que nos quieren imponer como límite de no sé qué catástrofe planetaria (hoy vamos por unas 385 ppm).

Pero seguirán pataleando, metiéndonos miedo y culpa mística, y haciendo creer a los más ignorantes, sin cortarse un pelo, que el CO2 es un gas nocivo para el ser humano.

No en todas partes tendrán el mismo éxito. No es lo mismo meterse con el carbón en Polonia, en donde suministra el 90% de la electricidad, que en Francia, en donde no alcanza ni el 5%. El primer ministro polaco declaró hace poco: yo no le digo a los franceses que sustituyan sus centrales nucleares por molinos de viento, que no me digan ellos tampoco lo que los polacos tenemos que hacer con nuestro carbón y nuestras centrales.

Los polacos serán duros de convencer. Habrá que enviarles unos cuantos apóstoles de Comisiones Obreras, para que les hagan un inventario, como el que han hecho aquí en España, de las centrales y empresas más "contaminantes".
ref.:
World to Stay Hooked on Fossil Fuels - IEA
Prometheus
Sólo 120 industrias acumulan el 36% de las emisiones de CO2 · ELPAÍS.com
http://www.istas.ccoo.es/descargas/Emisiones CO2 CCAA 2007.pdf

L'avanzata dei ghiacciai in Alaska

E' una notizia che non deve sorprendere più di tanto, in quanto sappiamo che numerosi ghiacciai di questa regione hanno comportamenti piuttosto "singolari", e reagiscono in modo esasperato ai cambiamenti climatici.

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Il Kennicott Glacier nella foto di Lukas Novak da www.panoramio.com/photo/8990801.

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Marco Rossi: 10-11-2008 ore 08:01

La notizia è recentissima, di appena pochi giorni fa, e la sua "fonte" è proprio quel geologo , Bruce Molnia, che, appena lo scorso anno, aveva pubblicato uno splendido studio sui ghiacciai dell'Alaska, evidenziandone il grande arretramento sviluppatosi soprattutto nell'ultimo cinquantennio.

Alcuni di questi grandi ghiacciai sono addirittura scomparsi, nel corso del 20° Secolo; il grande ghiacciaio Muir Glacier, tra il 1941 ed il 2004 si è ritirato di ben 20 chilometri, ed il suo spessore è diminuito di 800 metri, tanto per fare un esempio.

I dati pubblicati nel libro "Glaciers in Alaska", lasciavano intendere che il 99% dei ghiacciai erano in forte ritiro, e che tale ritiro aveva subito un'importante accelerazione nell'ultimo ventennio, tanto che, entro il 2030, molti di essi sarebbero del tutto scomparsi.

Queste le notizie della pubblicazione che risale appena allo scorso anno.

Negli ultimi giorni, lo stesso geologo Molnia ha effettuato dichiarazioni di stampo opposto, sconvolgendo il mondo dei glaciologi: dai dati satellitari, i ghiacciai dell'Alaska sono risultati in forte crescita, per la prima volta da moltissimo tempo, grazie all'effetto combinato di grandi precipitazioni nevose invernali, e di un'Estate di almeno 3° sotto la norma dal punto di vista termico.

In realtà, i ghiacciai di questa zona sono ipersensibili ai cambiamenti climatici anche solamente piccoli: per alcuni di loro si sono infatti misurate avanzate spettacolari nel corso degli anni '60, di parecchi chilometri in una sola Estate, tanto che si coniò il termine di "ghiacciai galoppanti", fenomeno dovuto non solamente alle variazioni termiche e pluviometriche, ma anche a conformazioni particolari del bacino glaciale e ad altre concause.
Anche gli arretramenti, del resto, sono stati del tutto spettacolari.

Fuori dell'Alaska, è noto il caso del ghiacciaio Kutiah, nella catena del Karakorum, che registrò un'avanzata di 12 km in soli due mesi! Ma in questo caso per motivi ben differenti a un brusco abbassamento di temperatura.

Siccome la notizia di un'inversione di tendenza nell'arretramento generale da parte dei ghiacciai dell'Alaska non è passata inosservata, siamo andati alla ricerca di quelle che possono essere state le cause climatiche di questo avanzamento e a verificare pertanto i dati meteorologici dell'ultimo anno di alcune stazioni situate nel cuore di questo vasto Stato nord americano.

Il grafico termometrico della città di Fairbanks, mostra uno scarto termico positivo di +0,24°C negli ultimi 12 mesi, ma con questa periodizzazione: i mesi di Novembre e Dicembre 2007 sono stati molto miti, così come il mese di Marzo 2008, mentre, effettivamente, ogni altro mese dell'anno 2008 è stato più freddo della norma, seppur di poco, per culminare con un periodo Ottobre- inizio Novembre 2008 freddissimi, di 6-7°C inferiori alla norma, in un vero e proprio inverno anticipato.

Le precipitazioni annue sono in forte crescita, sono caduti 350 mm di pioggia contro una norma di 247 mm.

Anchorage, sulla parte meridionale, vicinissima alle grandi catene montuose dell'Alaska ed alle principali lingue glaciali di questa Nazione, ha forse dati più significativi, anche perché riguardano direttamente la zona dove i ghiacciai si formano.

In questo caso, l'anno 2008, ad eccezione del mese di Marzo, appare notevolmente freddo, costantemente tra 1° e 2°C al di sotto dei valori normali, e con un "picco" di freddo tra Ottobre e Novembre.

Piogge oltre la norma anche ad Anchorage: qui sono caduti 450 mm di pioggia contro una norma annua di 380 mm.

Le condizioni meteorologiche, con temperature nel 2008 più basse della norma, e con precipitazioni abbondanti, sono state dunque veramente favorevoli all'avanzata glaciale.

C'è da chiedersi, invece, se sarà un semplice "fuoco di paglia", oppure solo l'inizio di un ciclo climatico più freddo su questa zona.

Quanto alle cause, viene subito da pensare al prolungato minimo di attività solare, anche se potrebbero essercene altre, come variazioni della temperatura superficiale dell'Oceano Pacifico.

L'intenso Global Warming del Terzo Millennio avanti Cristo

I dati paleografici, mostrano un clima fortemente caldo nei millenni che seguirono l'Era Glaciale, e che precedettero lo sviluppo della Civiltà greco-romana.

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Marco Rossi: 11-11-2008 ore 14:07

Ci sono molti metodi per scoprire il tipo di clima che interessò l'Europa nel lontano passato, quando non esistevano né testimonianze scritte, né, ovviamente, misurazioni pluviometriche.

In questo caso si ricorre allo studio dei fossili, degli strati di terreno, dei pollini, dei ritrovamenti di animali, e dei tipi di alberi che popolavano una certa zona, datati con precisione con il metodo del Carbonio 14.

Da tutti questi dati emerge un Europa che, reduce dalla lunga e gelida Era Glaciale, che aveva visto la calotta polare estendersi su tutta la Scandinavia e le Isole Britanniche, si è presa poi la sua bella rivincita sul gelo invernale, sfoderando un clima caldissimo, molto più dell'attuale.

Tale Optimum Climatico Postglaciale, conosciuto già da diversi decenni, sembra aver raggiunto la sua fase di massima intensità tra il 4000 ed il 2200 a C., un periodo di tempo sufficientemente lungo da permettere alle foreste ed alla vegetazione di conquistare aree settentrionali e di alta montagna.

Le prove che abbiamo a disposizione su questo clima molto caldo sono numerose.

In Scandinavia, anzitutto, la vegetazione arborea era situata ad altitudini di almeno 400 metri più elevate dell'attuale, ed erano presenti foreste di nocciolo (fino a circa 66° di latitudine nord).

In Groenlandia il mitilo è stato ritrovato in depositi di spiagge risalenti a questo periodo, fino a circa 73° di latitudine nord (oggi non va oltre i 66°).

Esaminando gusci di coralli col metodo del Carbonio 14, ne emerge che la Corrente oceanica del Curo Shio fosse più calda di adesso di almeno 4-5°C, e si portasse più a nord di ora.

In Cina il bambù era spostato più a nord di almeno 3° di latitudine, rispetto alle posizioni presenti nel XX Secolo.

Se ne deduce, da tutti questi indizi, che nel nostro Emisfero settentrionale le temperature medie fossero più elevate di almeno 2,5 - 3°C, rispetto a quelle medie dello scorso secolo, e che in Europa gli inverni fossero mitissimi, ma anche le Estati fossero probabilmente più calde di un paio di gradi.

Un vero e proprio "Global Warming" verificatosi in tempi preistorici, dunque.

Esso ebbe grandissima importanza per le popolazioni europee, che trovarono condizioni climatiche favorevoli al loro insediamento sul nostro Continente, potendo anche penetrare a sud dei sistemi montuosi Alpini e Pirenaici, i quali erano quasi del tutto privi di neve, e probabilmente con passi aperti anche in Inverno.

Ma quali le cause di tutto questo caldo, seguito al grandissimo freddo dell'Era Glaciale precedente?

A dire il vero, non si conoscono ancora con esattezza le cause di queste variazioni climatiche così intense e spesso improvvise.

La teoria più accreditata fu formulata dall'astronomo Milankovitch, che prendeva in considerazioni i moti periodici del nostro Pianeta (variazione periodica dell'inclinazione dell'asse terrestre, variazioni periodiche del moto orbitale attorno al Sole), moti che causano anche la variazione della radiazione solare in arrivo sul nostro Pianeta.

Ma potrebbe anche trattarsi di variazioni della ben nota "costante solare", della quantità di radiazione in arrivo dal Sole, che, mutando in percentuali anche molto piccole, potrebbe determinare variazioni anche considerevoli nel nostro clima.

Comunque, tale grande Optimum Climatico ebbe poi fine nel corso dei Secoli successivi, inaugurando un clima molto freddo che accompagnò lo sviluppo della Civiltà Romana nel corso del 1° Millennio avanti Cristo.

Tamino’s Folly - Temperatures did drop this past decade

“Tamino” has made a couple of posts on how the last 10 year drop in temperature is not statistically significant, so it isn’t real. He went too far in his last one and began claiming it was a tactic of some kind of creature called a denialist to confuse and confound the public.

Let’s see what Tamino has been saying on his blog link HERE.

Some of you might wonder why I make so many posts about the impact of noise on trend analysis, and how it can not only lead to mistaken conclusions about temperature trends, it can be abused by those who wish deliberately to mislead readers. The reason is that this is still a common tactic by denialists to confuse and confound the public.

I just hate bad science. First he points out how Bjorn Lomborg made some comments about temperature decreasing, after placing the ever more popular label of denialist on him implying Lomborg’s statements were intended to confound and confuse the public. Heres the main point of what Bjorn Lomborg said.

They (temperatures) have actually decreased by between 0.01 and 0.1C per decade.

Ok, so graphs like the one below are the reason Bjorn Lomborg is a denialist.

I copied this graph from Digital Diatribes of a Random Idiot - A great unbiased site for trends (link on the right). Note the slope of -.0082 (.01C/month units or .00098 degC/year - Thanks to digitial diatribes comment below) in the equation on the graph. Most of us know this is actual data and is correct, in fact every measure is showing similar results. The earth stopped warming- a very inconvenient truth. So Tamino what’s the argument, why are the evil and uncooperative denialists wrong?

Statistics of course.

Here comes the numbers from Tamino.

The most natural meaning of “this decade” is — well, this decade, i.e., the 2000’s. So I computed the trend and its uncertainty (in deg.C/decade) for three data sets: NASA GISS, RSS TLT, and UAH TLT, using data from 2000 to the present. To estimate the uncertainties, I modelled the noise as an ARMA(1,1) process. Here are the results:

Data	Rate (deg.C/decade)	Uncertainty (2-sigma)
GISS	+0.11	0.28
RSS	+0.03	0.40
UAH	+0.05	0.42

All three of these show warming during “this decade,” although for none of them is the result statistically significant.

Ok Tamino has calculated GISS, RSS and UAH. One ground measurement and two satellite. For those of you who don’t spend their afternoons and weekends digging into this. ARMA is a fancy sounding method for what ends up being a simple process Tamino has used to estimate the standard deviation of the temperature. Sometimes it seems the global warming guys believe the more complicated the better, but no matter. He has a 2 sigma column which represents about 95%. He then goes on to say that because of the sigma 0.28 or 0.40 is bigger than the trend, the trend is not statistically significant. He repeats the comment below.

Let’s make the same calculation using data from January 1998 to the present:

Data	Rate (deg.C/decade)	Uncertainty (2-sigma)
GISS	+0.10	0.22
RSS	-0.07	0.38
UAH	-0.05	0.38

Finally one can obtain negative trend rates, but only for 2 of the 3 data sets. But again, none of the results is statistically significant. Even allowing this dreadfully dishonest cherry-picked start date, the most favorable

Now Tamino claims to be a statistician so I can’t see how he made such a simple boneheaded error but if he wants to pitch softballs, I’ll hit em. Just to make sure he’s in good and deep here’s one more quote.

I’ve previously said “Those who point to 10-year “trends,” or 7-year “trends,” to claim that global warming has come to a halt, or even slowed, are fooling themselves.” I may have been mistaken; is Lomborg fooling himself, or does he know exactly what he’s doing?

So, Mr. Lomborg, we’re all very curious: how did you get those numbers?

Wrong turns everywhere

The first and really obvious error Tamino makes is referring to the short term variation in temperature as noise. Noise in the context of sigma is related to measurement error. How can we determine the measurement error of the three methods GISS, RSS and UAH. Well the graph of the three is below.

The first thing you notice from this graph is that the 3 measurements track each other pretty well. The signal is therefore not completely noise. Well what is the level of noise? We have above 12 measurements per year times 29 years. So we don’t need ARMA or other BS we can simply subtract the data. I put the numbers in a spreadsheet and calculated the difference between RSS and GISS, RSS and UAH and UAH and GISS. With 348 measurments for each type of instrument I was able to get a very good estimate of standard deviation of the actual measurements. Again, no ARMA, just using the difference between the graphs.

GISS - RSS one sigma 0.099 Two sigma 0.198

RSS-UAH one sigma 0.101 Two sigma 0.202

GISS-UAH one sigma 0.058 Two sigma 0.116

These are actual numbers and are substantially lower than the estimated two sigma by Tamino but still bigger than the 0.1 C per decade although the two sigma GISS - UAH is within a 90% confidence interval already!

This isn’t the end though. Tamino ended his discussion there implying shenanigans and other things of those who see a trend.

Both of our standard deviation calcs are for a SINGLE measurement NOT a trend.

This is a big screw up. How can a self proclaimed statistical expert miss this, it’s beyond me. Anyway, none of us is universally right every day but most hold their tongue rather than post a big boner on the internet. Well most scientists realize that when you take more than one measurement of a value you improve the accuracy. So being a non-genius, I used R to calculate what the statistical certainty of the slope is when taken over 10 year trends. Thanks again to Steve McIntyre for pointing me to this software. I don’t love it but it is convenient.

t=read.csv(”c:/agw/giss data/10 year variation.csv”, header=FALSE)

x = (1:length(t[,1]))

y=t[,1]

a=gls(y ~x)
confint(a)

confint(a)[2,1]-confint(a)[2,2]

y=t[,2]

a=gls(y ~x)
confint(a)
confint(a)[2,1]-confint(a)[2,2]

y=t[,3]

a=gls(y ~x)
confint(a)
confint(a)[2,1]-confint(a)[2,2]

What this script does is load the difference files i.e. GISS-UAH, fits a line to them and presents a number for the statistical confidence interval of the slope coefficient at 95 percent confidence which is about two sigma. The confidence of the slope of the trend is as follows

GISS - RSS Two sigma 0.00108 DegC/year

RSS-UAH Two sigma 0.001068 DegC/year

GISS-UAH Two sigma 0.0005154 DegC/year

Despite a standard deviation of .02 We have a twenty times more accurate slope measurement of 0.001degC/year !

Conclusions

1. We can say with a high degree of certainty that we know the trend of temperature for any ten year plot to within .01 degC/decade.

2. We can say that temperatures have dropped this past decade, just as our eyes looking at the graphs had already told us.

3. We can also say that Tamino owes a few more apologies.

He and Real Climate still don’t let me post on their blogs!

I wonder why?

.y 0,02 en los veranos

Monday, October 20, 2008

..y 0,02 en los veranos

Siguiendo con el post anterior, pongo los mapas de verano (meses de junio, julio y agosto). El cambio de la temperatura media global en lo que va de siglo, 2001-2008, da un resultado según el GISS de 0,02 ºC. Qué pena, dos centésimas de grado en ocho años ....

Solamente destaca un calentón en el Mar de Ross, en la Antártida, en donde precisamente no abundan las mediciones

Por lo demás, es curioso que en más de la mitad del Mediterráneo, la occidental, se ha manifestado en ese período una leve tendencia al enfriamiento. Lo contrario del sermón casi cotidiano que por estos lares soportar habemus.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Así va el siglo: 0,00

Pongo aquí dos mapas (azimutales, equivalentes, centrados en el ecuador, uno en 0º de longitud y el otro en 180º) que representan el cambio de temperatura (según los extremos de la tendencia lineal) en los inviernos que van del 2001 al 2008 (meses de diciembre, enero y febrero). Al final, a pesar de las sesudas discusiones, no me aclaré si el siglo XXI empezó en el año 2000 o en el 2001. Me parece, por lo que voy viendo, que a pesar del adelanto de las celebraciones, se considera que comenzó en el 2001. Da igual.

Los mapas los construyo gracias a los datos de la página web del Instituto Goddard de la NASA, dirigido por el calentista oficial James Hansen (abajo explicaré el procedimiento). Qué rabia le tiene que dar al jefe que llevemos ya casi ocho años de siglo y el cálculo del cambio medio de la temperatura global en este período da un resultado para el invierno de 0,00.

En tonos cálidos, amarillos y naranjas, aparecen las zonas en las que ha habido calentamiento. Destaca especialmente la zona del Artico al norte de Siberia. En tonos fríos, azules, aparecen las zonas de enfriamiento. Destaca especialmente Alaska. Por lo demás, se notan pocos cambios. Y el CO2, por supuesto, ha seguido subiendo por igual en todas partes. Otro día pondré los mapas de verano.

ref. GISS
para construir los mapas, primero hay que bajarse el programa NASA GISS: Panoply netCDF Viewer, segundo hay que construir el mapa (trends, 2001-2008, invierno, con mar incluído) entrando en los mapas del GISS, y descargarlo en donde pone (abajo) netCDF. Finalmente abrirlo con Panoply y elegir la escala y proyección cartográfica que se quiera.
Es divertido.

Sun’s magnetic field still in a funk during September

Sun’s magnetic field still in a funk during September

11 10 2008

While the sun puts out a new and significant cycle 24 spot, the real news is just how quiet the suns magnetic field has been in the past couple of years, and remained during September 2008. From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) you can see just how little magnetic field activity there has been. I’ve graphed it below with the latest available data from October 6th, 2008:

click for a larger image

What I find most interesting about the Geomagnetic Average Planetary Index graph above is what happened around October 2005. Notice the sharp drop in the magnetic index and the continuance at low levels.

This looks much like a “step function” that I see on GISS surface temperature graphs when a station has been relocated to a cooler measurement environment. In the case of the sun, it appears this indicates that something abruptly “switched off” in the inner workings of the solar dynamo. Note that in the prior months, the magnetic index was ramping up a bit with more activity, then it simply dropped and stayed mostly flat.

Currently the Ap magnetic index continues at a low level, and while the “smoothed” data from SWPC is not made available for 2008, I’ve added it with a dashed blue line, and the trend appears to be going down.

However, it will be interesting to see if an uptick in the Ap index occurs, now that a significant SC24 spot has emerged. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until early November for SWPC to update the data set.

Boise gets earliest snow on record, record cold in Oregon, Washington

Boise gets earliest snow on record, record cold in Oregon, Washington

12 10 2008

From the Idaho Statesman:

Valley shivers as winter weather makes a premature appearance

Big snow flakes fell early Friday evening, turning Downtown Boise into a giant snow globe for people on their way home from work.

The snow caught many people off guard, including this bicyclist heading down Idaho Street between 8th and 9th around 5:45 p.m. Across the Treasure Valley, tree branches heavy with wet, snow-covered leaves fell on power lines, causing scattered power outages.

This is the earliest measurable snowfall in Boise since recordkeeping began in 1898, according to the National Weather Service. At 10 p.m., the Weather Service said 1.7 inches of snow had fallen. The previous earliest recorded snowfall was Oct. 12, 1969, when a little more than an inch fell. And if the snow wasn’t enough, meteorologists say winds across southwestern Idaho will average 25 to 40 mph through Saturday afternoon, with gusts up to 55 mph. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected, which can make driving difficult.

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There is also some early and record snows in Billings Montana

A snowfall record for Oct. 11 was set in Billings yesterday.
According the National Weather Service, Billings saw 3.1 inches of snow Friday. The old record of 2.8 inches was set in 1969.

BOB ZELLAR/Gazette Staff

Vehicles drive through the snow and slush Highway 3 between Zimmerman Trail and the airport Friday October 10, 2008.

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Here in Northern California, we are getting some much earlier than normal cold weather. As you can see on my Bidwell Ranch Weather Station, we got into the 30’s last night, not a record, but darned early for fall weather here:

Ice Reality Check: Arctic Ice Now 31.3% Over Last Year

Ice Reality Check: Arctic Ice Now 31.3% Over Last Year, plus Scientists Counter Latest Arctic ‘Record’ Warmth Claims as ‘Pseudoscience’

18 10 2008

10/17/2007 5,663,125 square kilometers

10/17/2008 7,436,406 square kilometers

Δice = 1,773,281 sqkm or 31.3% more than last year

Source data here: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv (Excel file)

You’ve probably heard by now how this new story circulating this week claims “record warmth” and that we are in the peak time of melting. Meanwhile, “back at the ranch”, sea ice extent continues a steady upward climb as shown above.

Scientists Counter Latest Arctic ‘Record’ Warmth Claims as ‘Pseudoscience’ - Comprehensive Arctic Data Round Up - October 17, 2008

Claim: Newspaper article claims Arctic Temps Peak in November - Claims Arctic offers ‘early warning signs’ - McClatchy Newspapers - October 16, 2008

Excerpt: Temperatures in the Arctic last fall hit an all-time high - more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Centigrade) above normal - and remain almost as high this year, an international team of scientists reported Thursday. “The year 2007 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic,” said Jackie Richter-Menge, a climate expert at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H, and editor of the latest annual Arctic Report Card. “These are dynamic and dramatic times in the Arctic,” she said. “The outlook isn’t good.” Arctic temperatures naturally peak in October and November, after sea ice shrinks during the summer. [...] Scientists say these changes in the Arctic are early warning signs of what may be coming for the rest of the world’s climate.

Arctic Reality Check: Why isn’t the cooling Antarctic considered ‘an indicator of what might happen to the rest of the world?’

By Climate Scientist Dr. Ben Herman, past director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and former Head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona is a member of both the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth’s Executive Committee and the Committee on Global Change.

Read the rest of this entry »

Comments : 20 Comments »

Categories : Science, sea ice

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Can Oyster Art Curb Global Warming?

17 10 2008

by John Goetz

Here is an fun press release I ran across on prweb.com. If Ms. Haseltine is successful in her project, we might see more local produce on the Grand Central Station Oyster Bar menu. But will it actually do anything about global warming?

Professor Uses Oysters to Teach College Students to Curb Global Warming

Crassotrea virginica

Internationally acclaimed environmental artist Mara G Haseltine joined NYC’s The New School for Liberal Arts to teach, Oyster Gardens, the only class of its kind worldwide where the students will focus on the design and planning of a floating oyster colony, an innovative public art project which merges art, sustainable design and field science.

New York, NY (PRWEB) October 16, 2008 — Internationally acclaimed environmental artist Mara G Haseltine joined NYC’s The New School for Liberal Arts to teach Oyster Gardens, the only class of its kind worldwide where the students will focus on the design and planning of a floating oyster colony, an innovative public art project which merges art, sustainable design and field science.

Oyster Gardens celebrates New York’s past as the oyster capital of the world boasting of 350 square miles of bio diverse oyster reef as well as to prepare it for a sustainable future with a bountiful biodiverse estuary. Students learn about the history and the biology of the Crassostrea Virginia, the indigenous oyster of New York, as well as traditional and new innovative methods of reef restoration. In this unique course students work hand in hand with a cross disciplinary team that includes marine engineers, marine biologists, along with conservation organizations to plan and design and a ‘moveable reef’ — a floating oyster colony that could be deployed around the harbor.

The idea is to bring back Crassotrea Virginica to New York, which would create a natural filtration system that cleans the waters and simultaneously brings back biodiversity, that has been missing in New York’s waters and estuaries since the Industrial Revolution. Oysters are the backbone of the benthic habitat and can act as natural water treatment plants. The average oyster filters 5-25 gallons of “nutrient” rich water per day. The restoration of 100 square miles of reef would filter twenty seven billion tons of wastewater that flows into New York’s waterways annually. The reef would not only be a haven for oyster,s but would quickly become a diverse habitat for aquatic life of all forms, from gastropods to stripped bass.

co2 Sunday, October 12, 2008 Agujero de ozono, temporada 2008

Hace más de veinte años, en 1987, se firmó el Protocolo de Montreal con el objetivo de rellenar el agujero de ozono de la Antártida, que, según la teoría oficial, se había formado debido a los CFC's usados como refrigerantes. Se prohibieron los CFC's. Pero el "agujero de ozono" sigue formándose hoy igual que antes.

Por agujero de ozono se entiende la zona en donde temporalmente, de septiembre a diciembre, el espesor de ozono sobre la Antártida se reduce y queda por debajo de las 220 unidades Dobson (100 unidades Dobson equivalen a 1 mm de espesor de ozono). Lo expliqué de forma más detallada el año pasado (Agujero de ozono, temporada 2007). La media anual de ozono sobre la Antártida es mayor que sobre la zona tropical.



La reducción que ocurre entre septiembre y diciembre responde a complicadas causas de orden físico (movimientos atmósfericos con transporte de ozono) y de orden químico (reacciones fotoquímicas de creación y destrucción de ozono). El nefasto simplismo ecologista redujo toda la "culpabilidad" a los CFC's , como ahora se reduce toda la "culpabilidad" del cambio climático al CO2.
El tema del ozono es un tema sobre el que los medios prefieren pasar de puntilllas, debido a que el propio IPCC reconoce que una supuesta disminución del ozono estratosférico contribuiría al enfriamiento de la troposfera o, por lo menos, a la amortiguación del temido calentamiento. En fin, lo contrario de lo que durante décadas han estado escribiendo, retransmitiendo y hasta televisando. Es cierto que un aumento del CO2, precisamente porque enfría la baja estratosfera puede contribuir a reforzar el aislamiento del aire encerrado en el vórtice polar y contribuir a una mayor reducción de ozono. Pero en este caso, no sería el cloro de los CFC's el principal "culpable", lo cual tampoco concuerda con lo que se firmó en Montreal y nos repitieron hasta la saciedad.

Speck spotted - looks to be cycle 23

Not much time for a full report, as it is very late for me, but I’ll pass this along from comments. Looks to be cycle 23 due to low latitude. - Anthony

Looks like a sunspot has appeared recently, as of Oct 9, 1600. Magnetogram also shows a spot. Is this the last spot that had blinked in and out?

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html